Individual consultant for 2025 Census Thematic Report - Fertility & Nuptiality Report, Population and Development (PD), Vientiane, Laos PDR, P4

The Position:

Individual consultant for 2025 Census Thematic Report - Fertility & Nuptiality Report

You will report to

Policy and Census Coordinator

How you can make a difference:

UNFPA is the lead United Nations agency for delivering a world where every pregnancy is intended, every childbirth is safe, and every young person's potential is fulfilled. The UNFPA Strategic Plan for 2026-2029 articulates the organization’s response to a complex global environment, providing a roadmap for resilience and renewal. It is designed to accelerate the implementation of the Programme of Action of the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) and the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030. This mandate is pursued through a focus on four interconnected outcomes: ending the unmet need for family planning; ending preventable maternal deaths; ending gender-based violence and harmful practices; and adapting to demographic change through evidence and rights-based policies.

In a world where fundamental human rights are at risk, we need principled and ethical staff who embody these international norms and standards and will defend them courageously and with full conviction.

UNFPA is seeking candidates who transform, inspire, and deliver high-impact sustained results, ensuring effective external relations, communications, partnership-building and resource mobilization in a rapidly changing development and funding landscape. We need staff who are transparent, exceptional in how they manage the resources entrusted to them, and who commit to delivering excellence in programme results

Job Purpose:

The UNFPA Country Office in Lao PDR is seeking an international consultant to provide advanced technical assistance and demographic expertise to the Lao Statistics Bureau (LSB) for the computation, validation, structural modelling, and narrative write-up of the official Population and Housing Census Thematic Report on Fertility and Nuptiality, including a high-impact Policy Brief and interactive geospatial dissemination products.

This work will be coordinated and overseen by the UNFPA Policy and Census Coordinator. Consultation will occur with UNFPA's Regional Advisers as needed. The consultancy will adhere to UNFPA's policies and procedures, in collaboration with national counterparts where required.

The Lao People’s Democratic Republic has successfully concluded the nationwide field data collection for its 2025 Population and Housing Census (PHC), marking a historic transition as the country's first-ever digital census. As the operation enters its critical post-enumeration analytical phase, turning this unprecedented digital dataset into strategic, socio-demographic intelligence is paramount.

Lao PDR stands at an essential development crossroads, shaped by its upcoming graduation from Least Developed Country (LDC) status and a time-limited window of opportunity to capitalize on its demographic dividend, as outlined in its first-ever Demographic Dividend Roadmap. Recent data from the Lao Social Indicator Survey (LSIS III) indicates that Lao PDR is undergoing a rapid and unequal fertility transition. At the national level, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has fallen from 6.3 in the 1980s to 2.5 births per woman (LSIS III, 2023), but there are profound geographic and socio-economic disparities. For instance, urban areas like Vientiane Capital have plummeted to sub-replacement levels (TFR 1.5), while provinces like Xaysomboun (TFR 3.7) and Phongsaly (TFR 3.4) experience extremely elevated reproductive intensity, with adolescent birth rates reaching as high as 183 births per 1,000 women aged 15–19.

Understanding fertility transition in Laos, socioeconomic drivers of this rapid fertility decline, changing marriage patterns, and family formation structures is an institutional imperative for programming, planning and policy response in the areas of population and development, women and youth empowerment, sexual reproductive health and rights. In the absence of a complete birth registration and administrative records, census data is essential for calculating fertility rates. Given that, LSB requires the technical support of a senior demographer to apply rigorous demographic estimation techniques, pair variables with geographic information systems (GIS), write the definitive national
monograph on fertility and nuptiality, and build analytical capacities within LSB's technical teams.

You would be responsible for:

• The International Consultant will be directly embedded within the LSB analytical structure via an Expert Pairing Modality, working 1-to-1 with a LSB counterpart and mentoring a dedicated cohort of 2–3 junior LSB experts to maximize institutional knowledge transfer.
  The scope of analysis is bound by the parameters captured in the 2025 PHC questionnaires (including modules on household and individual information). The consultant will take full technical responsibility for guiding the validation, syntax preparation, analysis, indicator construction, and final structural write-up of the report.
  Key Indicators and Analytical Dimensions to be Modelled: 1. Nuptiality and Marriage Dynamics: Proportional distributions of marital statuses (Never Married, Married, Separated, Widowed, Divorced) disaggregated by 5-year age cohorts, sex, and urban/rural location.
  a. Derivation of the Singulate Mean Age at Marriage (SMAM) across national and sub-national tiers.
  b. Micro-analysis of Child Marriage (ages 12–17) and consensual/cohabiting unions without formal registration, evaluating their structural impacts on educational attainment and employment. Regional and socio-economic differentials in child marriage.
  c. Dissolution of marriage through widowhood and divorce.
  d. Consensual unions: persons living together with partners.
  2. Fertility Levels, Variations, and Differentials:
  a. Direct and indirect estimation of the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and Age-Specific Fertility Rates (ASFR), and birth-order specific fertility rates (Decomposition of TFR by birth order) nationally and across all 18 provinces.
  b. Computation of mean Children Ever Born (CEB) alive to women aged 15–49 as a proxy for lifetime/completed fertility.
  c. Calculation of Fertility Differentials correlated against background variables: literacy, completed educational attainment, household wealth quintiles, labour force status and employment status, and ethno-linguistic typologies.
  d. Tracking of alternative demographic indicators: Crude Birth Rates (CBR), General Fertility Rates (GFR), Mean age at first marriage, Child-Woman Ratios (CWR), Parity Progression Ratios (PPR), parity-specific fertility measures and childlessness indices.
  3. Adolescent and Teenage Fertility: Detailed single-year tracking (ages 15–19) of early fertility, mapping risks, sub-national hotspots, and cross-tabulating births against educational retention and marital classification.
  4. Geospatial and GIS Mapping Integration: Integrating localized indicators directly with LSB's GIS infrastructure to produce high-resolution choropleth maps at the provincial level visualizing fertility/nuptiality variations (e.g., TFR and adolescent birth rates, age at first marriage), mapping gaps in reproductive access, and preparing standardized spatial data frames for integration into the forthcoming national Census Atlas .
  The consultant will execute the assignment across the following mandatory operational steps:
  1. Task 1: Inception and Methodological Design: Review the census questionnaires, variables, and previous survey reports (LSIS III, previous census). Produce an Inception Report establishing the rigorous mathematical framework, modeling equations, and index structures.
  2. Task 2: Structural Outline and Dummy Tables: Draft the comprehensive structural skeleton of the monograph along with empty 'dummy tables' and graphic shells indicating exactly how the data will be distributed. This includes trend-line graphs comparing 2015 to 2025 data, and standardized data visualization templates suitable for a non-technical policy audience.
  3. Task 3: Syntax Development and On-the-Job Mentorship: Train and guide LSB staff in writing clean, reproducible statistical scripts (SPSS and/or R syntaxes) to manipulate micro-datasets, execute deterministic syntax pipelines, and extract data to fill the agreed dummy tables.
  4. Task 4: Data Validation and Indirect Adjustments: Lead the technical validation of LSB-generated outputs. smooth age-heaping errors, evaluate coverage distortions, and reconcile census counts against administrative data structures (e.g., DHIS health indicators). Apply advanced indirect demographic estimation models (e.g. Brass P/F Ratio methods, Relational Gompertz models, and Reverse Survival projections) to calculate fertility indicators.
  5. Task 5: Monograph Synthesis and Narrative Drafting: Write the definitive text of the monograph, synthesizing findings, detailing demographic trends, and translating correlations into evidence-based policy recommendations.
  6. Task 6: High-Impact Policy Brief Production: Author a highly concise, visually appealing 2-to-3 page national Policy Brief (mirroring the concise presentation style of global statistical snapshots) that distils complex cross-tabulations into immediate, actionable policy levers for senior planners and ministers.
  Expected Outputs/Deliverables:
  The successful completion of this consultancy will yield the following key outputs:
  ● Output 1: An approved Inception Report detailing the methodological framework and indirect estimation equations.
  ● Output 2: A complete set of populated dummy tables and the fully reproducible, clean SPSS/R syntax files used to generate them.
  ● Output 3: A comprehensive, publication-ready Fertility and Nuptiality Thematic Monograph.
  ● Output 4: A 2-to-3 page high-impact Policy Brief with actionable policy recommendations.
  ● Output 5: A final package of geospatial products (ready-to-publish thematic maps and shapefiles) for integration into the Census Atlas. Duration and working schedule, delivery and how work will be delivere: 40 working days during the period (24 July to 30th November 2026) The work will be completed in a structured, phased sequence across the calendar year 2026, aiming to close all core technical processing loops by December.
  The following table shows a tentative timeline for the deliverables of the TOR. The proposed timeline will be agreed and finalized in discussion with the consultant.
• Main deliverables
  no. of working days
  Tentative date 3
  Mid August 3
  Mid August 15
  By 31 August 2026 14
  End of Sept., or early October 5
  By 10 November 2026
  • Inception Report: Detailing precise modeling methodologies, indirect estimation equations, and a comprehensive implementation plan approved by LSB and UNFPA - Remote work
  • Monograph Structural Outline and Comprehensive Dummy Tables: report outline, detailed table of content and macro-empty table framework aligned with UN standards - Remote work
  • Validated SPSS/R Syntaxes and Populated Table Matrices: Delivery of fully functional, clean code syntax packages run by LSB staff under consultant supervision; technical validation of finalized sub-national tables. The on-site mission will culminate in a Preliminary Findings Consultation Workshop. - Blended (10 days Remote & 5 days on-site work)*
  • Draft Monograph Manuscript (First Draft): Complete narrative draft incorporating all chapters, graphic cross-tabulations, and thematic analyses shared with the Technical Committee for peer-review - Remote work
  • Final peer-reviewed Monograph, 3-Page Policy Brief, and Dissemination Metadata: Delivery of the publication-ready monograph volume, the finalized policy infographic summary brief, and dashboard mapping files. - remote work

*LSB and UNFPA intend to incorporate core fertility indicators, such as the TFR and ASFR, into the main census report. The analysis for these two specific indicators must be prioritized, ensuring they are completed and ready for integration by the end of August.

Submission Requirements:
All deliverables must be submitted in English, in electronic format. The exact delivery dates will be finalized through discussions with the selected consultant and partners. A detailed working schedule will also be developed in consultation with the recruited consultant.

Workshop materials and presentation files must be submitted to UNFPA at least 7 days prior to the events for review.

Payment Modality:
In line with UNFPA financial rules and standard Individual Consultant guidelines, payments are strictly performance-linked and will be disbursed in two equal installments upon satisfactory technical clearance and confirmation of milestones by the UNFPA Country Office in Lao PDR:
● First Installment (50% of total contract amount): Upon the timely submission and technical approval of Deliverable from 1 to 3, scheduled by August 31, 2026.
● Second Installment (50% of total contract amount): Upon the completion of the on-site mission, final submission, technical validation, and official government endorsement of the monograph, scheduled by November 10, 2026.

Monitoring and progress control:

Milestones and timelines for the assignment will be agreed upon at the beginning of the contract.
UNFPA will provide periodic follow-up and monitoring based on the working schedule to ensure timely delivery of the tasks as well as timely mitigation of any unexpected obstacles.

Technical Supervision:

The selected consultant will work under the overall supervision of the UNFPA Policy and Census Coordinator, and in consultation with the UNFPA’s P&D Team and UNFPA’s Regional Specialist on Population and Development and LSB.

The consultant will work closely with the Population and Development Team in UNFPA Country Office in Laos as well as the senior experts from Lao Statistics Bureau (LSB), and other experts involved in the census analysis and report writing as needed. S/he will significantly engage with the relevant stakeholders and development partners as needed.

Place of assignment

The international consultant is expected to perform this work on a hybrid modality including remote working and on-site missions to Lao PDR. The consultant will provide 'over-the-shoulder' technical coaching via screen-sharing sessions to the national team during the preparation of syntaxes and other technical work.

For remote working, the consultant is expected to engage with the LSB team and UNFPA via online meeting platforms at least twice a week for technical guidance, progress reporting and technical discussion.

For the on-site missions, it is expected that the consultant will travel to Lao PDR once during the contract period as tentatively planned above. The 5-day on-site mission to Vientiane is strategically recommended for late August 2026. The primary objective of this mission is to conduct face-to-face technical validation of the populated census tables alongside LSB counterparts, resolve any data anomalies, and facilitate a stakeholder consultation session to review the preliminary findings before drafting the narrative monograph.

During the mission, the consultant will be based in the Lao Statistics Bureau (LSB), in Vientiane Capital, and will work closely with the LSB Team and the UNFPA Policy and Census Coordinator, and other stakeholders to complete the deliverables as mentioned above.

UNFPA will cover all travel costs related to any potential mission as per the UNFPA’s rules and regulations.

Qualifications and Experience:

Education:

• Advanced University Degree (Ph.D. highly preferred, or Master's Degree with equivalent seniority) in Demography, Population Studies, Statistics, Quantitative Sociology, or a highly related economic development discipline.

Knowledge and Experience:

• Minimum of 7 years of progressive international experience specialized in advanced demographic analysis, with a proven track record of authoring national-level Census Thematic Monographs or Demographic Profile Reports for UN agencies or National Statistical Offices (NSOs).
• Direct operational expertise in deploying direct and indirect demographic estimation techniques for fertility analysis (e.g., relational Gompertz models, reverse survival projections, parity progression smoothing).
• Advanced mastery of statistical analysis packages, including database structure alignment and syntax automation workflows.
• Direct experience operating within resource-constrained environments or developing states, preferably with specific knowledge of the Southeast Asian demographic transition context.
• Ability to work independently in a cross-cultural environment and demonstrated capacity to build strong relationships with local counterparts and donor agencies.
• High-level communication skills especially for transfer of knowledge.

Languages:

• Excellent English speaking and writing skills.

Required Competencies:

Values:

• Exemplifying integrity,
• Demonstrating commitment to UNFPA and the UN system,
• Embracing cultural diversity,
• Embracing change

Core Competencies:

• Achieving results,
• Integrity/Commitment to UNFPA's Values and Guiding Principles;
• Teamwork/Communication/Self-Management;
• Knowledge Sharing and Continuous Learning
• Being accountable,
• Developing and applying professional expertise/business acumen,
• Thinking analytically and strategically,
• Working in teams/managing ourselves and our relationships,

Functional Competencies:

• Conceptual innovation in the provision of technical expertise;
• Job Knowledge/Technical expertise.

Recommended Presentation of Proposal: N/A

Other relevant information or special conditions, if any:

The consultant shall complete the following on-line training courses and submit the certificates to UNFPA before signing the ICC:
● BSAFE, Link: https://training.dss.un.org/course/category/6
● Fraud and Corruption Awareness and Prevention: https://extranet.unfpa.org/Apps/Antifraud/English/story_html5.html
● PSEA (Prevention of Sexual Exploitation and Abuse): https://extranet.unfpa.org/Apps/PSEA2017/story_html5.html?lms=1

Compensation and Benefits:

This position offers an attractive remuneration package including a competitive net salary and other benefits as applicable.

UNFPA Work Environment:

UNFPA provides a work environment that reflects the values of gender equality, diversity, integrity and healthy work-life balance. We are committed to ensuring gender parity in the organization and therefore encourage women to apply. Individuals from the LGBTQIA+ community, minority ethnic groups, indigenous populations, persons with disabilities, and other underrepresented groups are highly encouraged to apply. Reasonable accommodation may be provided to applicants with disabilities upon request, to support their participation in the recruitment process. UNFPA promotes equal opportunities in terms of appointment, training, compensation and selection for all regardless of personal characteristics and dimensions of diversity. Diversity, Equity and Inclusion is at the heart of UNFPA's workforce - click here to learn more.

Disclaimer:

Selection and appointment may be subject to background and reference checks, medical clearance, visa issuance and other administrative requirements.

UNFPA does not charge any application, processing, training, interviewing, testing or other fee in connection with the application or recruitment process and does not concern itself with information on applicants' bank accounts.

Applicants for positions in the international Professional and higher categories, who hold permanent resident status in a country other than their country of nationality, may be required to renounce such status upon their appointment.