Consultant on Macro-Climate

Result of Service

Output 1: Annotated outline of the study, with a description of its methodology and data sources. (Necessary adjustments to the expected elements of the study can also be suggested at this stage) Deliverable 1: An annotated outline including (a) proposed structure, (b) literature review of methodologies, and (c) proposed methodology tailored to Lao PDR. Delivery date 1: 15/08/2026 Output 2: First complete draft of the study Deliverable 2: First draft of the assessment, including scenario design, preliminary macro-fiscal implications, and initial policy findings. Delivery date 2. 13/09/2026 Output 3. Final study, incorporating all the feedback received. Deliverable 3. Final draft incorporating feedback, with references and technical annexes, that is ready for policy dialogue and publication. Delivery date 3. 25/10/2026 Output 4: Presentation of findings at capacity-building workshop for relevant policymakers Location: Lao PDR. Deliverable 4: Presentation delivered at national capacity-building workshop; accompanying PowerPoint and summary handout submitted. Delivery date 4: November/December 2026 How are the outputs to be delivered? ☒ Digital copy ☐ Hard copy ☐ Other, please specify _____________________

Work Location

Remotely

Expected duration

20/8 - 15/12/26

Duties and Responsibilities

Government of the Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) is formulating the Energy and Industry CO₂ Reduction Master Plan to achieve a low-carbon development in the energy and industrial sectors. This national study will provide technical analysis that contributes to this master plan. In Lao PDR, a landlocked developing economy heavily reliant on agriculture and hydropower exports, extreme climate-induced weather events, such as floods and droughts, have caused significant macroeconomic disruptions, dampened livelihoods and pushed up food insecurity. To address these impacts, policymakers cannot delay climate action, as the costs of inaction or misguided policies (such as inefficient resource allocation) would likely amplify socioeconomic losses in this resource-constrained country. Yet, the availability of empirical evidence on the nexus between climate change, climate action and macro/economic outcomes in Lao PDR is limited. This hinders informed decision-making and economic-climate policy design. In this context, capacity building based on a national study to be prepared under this project will help enhance national policymakers' understanding of economic implications of climate change and action. There is also a need to design climate policies that also foster socioeconomic prosperity, such as considering economic growth and social well-being implications of climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. The objective of this consultancy is to support the Government of Lao PDR in strengthening technical capacity to integrate macroeconomic goals into climate action planning, in particular as part of the Energy and Industry CO₂ Reduction Master Plan. Deliverables and Structure The consultancy comprises the following components: 1) preparation of the national study; 2) participation in the first workshop, to be organized in Lao PDR, to collect information and participants’ perspectives on climate action and renewable energy development targets; 3) participation in the second workshop, to be organized in Lao PDR, to support the dissemination of the national study and conduct capacity-building activities informed by key findings of the national study. The core analytical work is expected to be completed by end-October 2026. The preparation for and participation in the second national capacity-building workshop is planned for November 2026. Part A. Core study: A macroeconomic-fiscal-climate assessment study The 2025 and 2026 editions of ESCAP’s flagship report “Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific” provide the analytical foundation of this national study. Both reports examine the macroeconomic-climate nexus in Asia-Pacific developing economies: physical risks (e.g. disasters reducing GDP and causing agricultural losses and infrastructure damage) and transition risks (e.g. stranded assets, employment shifts, fiscal pressures, inflation and income inequality). In addition to arguing for developmental-state industrial policy, the Survey also analysed topics such as green value chains, just transition measures, carbon pricing with revenue recycling, green finance/taxonomies/bonds, and integrated planning that balances short-term costs with long-term productivity, resilience and co-benefits. In this analysis, Lao PDR is considered as highly exposed to climate change and climate action risks, mainly due to high agricultural employment share, low resilience to climate shocks, and elevated debt vulnerabilities. This national study should be around 8,000-10,000 words. An indicative allocation is around one-third of the words each for (1), (2) and (3), with flexibility as needed. 1) Baseline and analytical framework a) Conduct a review of Lao PDR’s development objectives based on available government documents to establish a baseline for the climate action analysis b) This national study shall be aligned with, among others, i) the 10th Five-Year National Socio-Economic Development Plan (2026–2030) (10th NSEDP) ii) the 10-Year Socio-Economic Development Strategy (2026–2035) iii) the Vision to 2055 iv) National Strategy on Climate Change towards 2030 v) National Green Growth Strategy till 2030 vi) Updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) 3.0 vii) National Power Development Strategy viii) Renewable Energy Development Strategy in Lao PDR c) Assess Lao PDR’s macroeconomic exposure to climate-related physical and transition shocks, including the implications of Lao PDR’s economic structure, for macroeconomic resilience, fiscal performance, financing needs and debt sustainability. Identify the main fiscal transmission channels through which climate-related shocks and policies may affect Lao PDR’s public finances, including revenues, expenditures, contingent liabilities, public investment needs, financing conditions and debt sustainability. Discuss climate change and climate action impact on other macroeconomic indicators such as inflation, trade balance, exchange rates. Discuss monetary policy implications. d) Contribute to Lao PDR’s renewable energy development strategy relevant for the discussed macroeconomic implications of climate action and development plans, in particular energy and industrial sectors, energy efficiency, and other clean-energy technologies. e) Describe potential carbon market mechanisms, including carbon credits and Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs), as potential instruments to support the low-carbon transition along with their fiscal implications f) Specify and document a transparent analytical framework for tracing climate shocks into macro-fiscal outcomes and public debt sustainability, including key assumptions, transmission channels, indicative elasticities and sensitivity ranges, ensuring that the methodology is rigorous, transparent and accessible to government counterparts. g) Set out a practical methodology for the subsequent readiness and gaps assessment, including: i) Assessment criteria linked to macro-fiscal resilience, climate-risk management and public debt sustainability; ii) A proposed set of quantitative and qualitative indicators to guide the assessment of Lao PDR’s current institutional and macro-fiscal readiness. These indicators are intended to support the analytical assessment and should not be interpreted as a mandatory monitoring framework; iii) Data requirements, likely national data sources, expected limitations and proposed approaches for addressing data gaps through supplementary international sources where appropriate. 2) Scenario design and analysis a) The analysis should distinguish, where relevant, between physical climate risks and transition-related risks, recognizing that they may affect Lao PDR’s macro-fiscal position through different channels. Design and analyse policy-relevant scenarios, drawing on external research, such as the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) or Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI), climate-scenario framework and other relevant national and international analytical inputs, as appropriate, and adapt them pragmatically to Lao PDR’s macro-fiscal context, including: i) Current Policies baseline: Business-as-usual pathway reflecting policies in force at the cut-off date ii) Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) / stated pledges scenario: Full implementation of Lao PDR’s NDCs with no additional global policy tightening beyond stated pledges iii) Orderly Transition (Below 2°C / Net Zero 2050): Early, predictable and coordinated policy ramp-up consistent with Paris-aligned pathways iv) Disorderly Transition (Delayed / Divergent): Late and abrupt policy tightening to meet long-run targets, generating higher transition risks, such as stranded assets and inflationary and fiscal pressures b) Apply the analytical framework specified in point (1) to these scenarios to illustrate the potential implications for fiscal space, financing needs, contingent liabilities and public debt sustainability, and other relevant macroeconomic dimensions. c) Discuss the impact of renewable energy development plans and scenarios on macroeconomic dimensions. d) Use these above policy scenarios to summarize key climate change and climate action macroeconomic impact channels to inform policy package discussed in point (3). 3) Policy package, implementation, and monitoring and evaluation a) Readiness and gaps assessment (evidence-based): Using the scenario results, assess the readiness of key macro-fiscal, public debt management, and relevant institutional arrangements to manage identified risks, highlighting priority capacity gaps and corresponding capacity-building actions. b) Propose tailored policy recommendations based on the scenario analysis, focusing on: i) Fiscal strategies: Possible areas may include a climate-fiscal strategy embedded in Lao PDR’s national development plans; budget tagging and climate fiscal-risk statements (including state-owned enterprises and public-private partnership projects); capital expenditures reprioritization and stronger public investment management (such as climate screens and shadow carbon price); fiscal revenue options with targeted climate-related social protection; layered disaster-risk financing (including contingency funds, contingent credit lines and risk-transfer instruments); and prudent public debt management including the potential use of climate-resilient debt clauses and credible sustainability-linked bonds and loans. ii) Financing strategy and instruments: Link the macro-fiscal findings to feasible financing options, including, where relevant, sustainable financing instruments, concessional climate finance, blended finance or other mechanisms that could support resilience investments while maintaining debt sustainability. iii) Regulation and supervision considerations: Identify high-level financial sector climate-risk management implications relevant to macroeconomic resilience, including financial stability transmission channels and relevant data or disclosure considerations where appropriate. iv) Monetary policy and operations: Discuss relevant implications of climate-related shocks for macro-financial conditions, including inflationary pressures, liquidity conditions, and broader financial stability considerations where relevant. v) Implementation and monitoring and evaluation: Issues such as a practical implementation roadmap identifying sequencing priorities, institutional responsibilities, indicative milestones, and capacity-building needs. c) Present findings as a practical implementation roadmap with clear institutional responsibilities, priority actions, and indicative timelines. i) Part B: Dissemination and capacity-building support 1) Prepare and deliver a policy-focused presentation of the study’s key findings, methodologies, and recommendations at the second workshop 2) Participate in the second national capacity-building workshop with key government stakeholders to promote integration of climate-related macro-fiscal risks into policymaking and government budget processes. The consultant is expected to work under the general guidance of the Associate Economic Affairs Officer of the Macroeconomic Policy and Analysis Section (MPAS) of ESCAP’s Macroeconomic Policy and Financing for Development Division (MPFD). Broad and in-depth understanding of macroeconomic policy, climate risk analysis, climate-integrated debt diagnostics, fiscal instruments, disaster-risk financing and sustainable finance is required, along with sound knowledge of the policy landscape and challenges in Lao PDR. Experience in analytical or advisory roles in support of national governments or international development agencies is highly desirable. Demonstrated experience in quantitative macroeconomic analysis, macro-fiscal assessment, debt sustainability analysis, climate-related fiscal risk assessment, scenario analysis or related analytical methodologies is highly desirable. Experience in developing or applying analytical frameworks for macro-fiscal, debt sustainability or climate-risk assessment in developing countries, especially least developed countries, would be an advantage.

Qualifications/special skills

Master of Arts in International Development/Economics/Philosophy/Development Planning Working experiences on Climate Action Planning

Languages

Good command in English

Additional Information

Payment of USD 15,000 upon satisfactory completion of the work (by phases).

No Fee

THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CHARGE A FEE AT ANY STAGE OF THE RECRUITMENT PROCESS (APPLICATION, INTERVIEW MEETING, PROCESSING, OR TRAINING). THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CONCERN ITSELF WITH INFORMATION ON APPLICANTS’ BANK ACCOUNTS.